Regime Compass displays the output of statistical models — a 3-state Gaussian Hidden Markov Model, simple moving averages, and exponential moving averages — that classify each trading day for selected market indices into one of several regime states (bear / neutral / bull, or bull / bear depending on the model). The outputs are descriptions of recent observed market behaviour and not predictions of future prices.
It is a regime indicator, not a signal generator, forecast, or recommendation. The probabilities and regime labels shown have no predictive power over future prices. They describe what the model believes the market is, not what it will do.
Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, derivative, currency, commodity, or other financial instrument, or any form of solicitation. The information is provided "as is" for general informational and educational purposes only.
The author is not registered, licensed, or authorised as an investment advisor, research analyst, broker-dealer, financial planner, or in any similar capacity with any regulator in any jurisdiction worldwide — including but not limited to:
If you reside in a jurisdiction where financial commentary requires regulatory authorisation, you confirm by using this site that you understand the author holds no such authorisation, and that you are accessing the information solely as general educational material.
Always consult a qualified, registered financial advisor in your jurisdiction before making investment decisions.
Use of this site does not create any advisor-client, fiduciary, or other professional relationship between you and the author. The author has no obligation to update, correct, or remove any information presented.
Historical and live data is sourced from Yahoo Finance via the yfinance open-source library. Yahoo Finance is a free, unofficial source — it may contain inaccuracies, gaps, delayed values, occasional bad ticks, or be unavailable from time to time. The author makes no warranty as to the accuracy, completeness, currency, or timeliness of any data displayed.
Live readings may be delayed by hours after market close while the daily data refresh completes. Where Yahoo Finance is temporarily unavailable, the dashboard may display the most recent successfully-fetched data, which may be one or more trading days old. Indices, currencies, and volatility measures are subject to revision by their respective issuers without notice.
This service is provided "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE", without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy, timeliness, or non-infringement.
To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall the author, contributors, or operators be liable for any claim, damages, or other liability — including but not limited to direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, exemplary, or punitive damages, lost profits, lost data, business interruption, or other commercial damages — arising from, out of, or in connection with the use, inability to use, or reliance on this dashboard or any of its outputs, whether in an action of contract, tort, negligence, or otherwise, even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
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Trading and investing in equity markets, derivatives, currencies, commodities, and other financial instruments carries substantial risk of loss — including the loss of your entire investment and, in the case of leverage, more than your entire investment. Past returns are not indicative of future results. You alone are responsible for any decisions made on the basis of information from this site.
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All content on this site, including but not limited to text, charts, model outputs, source code, and design, is the intellectual property of the author unless otherwise noted. The methodology is freely described for educational purposes; commercial use of the outputs requires prior written consent.
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