Hidden Markov Model

Daily Volatility Regime

Three-state Hidden Markov Model trained on 16 years of daily data across global indices. Filtered probabilities only — no future leak.
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Today's HMM regimes

HMM regime as of 2026-09-10: S&P 500 bull · Nasdaq 100 bull · Bitcoin bull · Ethereum bull · Gold bear · Silver neutral · Euro Stoxx 50 bull · Nifty 50 bull · Nikkei 225 neutral · KOSPI Composite bear · Shanghai Composite bull · Hang Seng bull · TAIEX neutral · Crude Oil (WTI) bear · Copper neutral · US 10Y Treasuries neutral · US Dollar Index bull · FTSE 100 bull · Bovespa neutral · Tadawul All Share bull.

How to read this dashboard

The model classifies each trading day into one of three regimes:

  • bear   high volatility. Larger fluctuations in the model’s historical state.
  • neutral   medium volatility. An intermediate state, not a sideways-price forecast.
  • bull   low volatility. Calmer fluctuations; prices can still rise or fall.

The three percentages are the model's confidence that the market is in each regime right now, given everything it has seen through today's close. They always sum to 100%.

Read the volatility state first. These probabilities describe high, medium, and low volatility—not a forecast of price direction. Compare with the trend tools before interpreting the market. Read the About page for a full guide.

Today
High volatility
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model probability · high-vol state
Medium volatility
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model probability · medium-vol state
Low volatility
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model probability · low-vol state
Current regime: —
Days in regime: —
Close: —
As of: —
Last 90 trading days
What each regime looks like for this index
RegimeMean daily returnMean realized vol—
Recent regime runs (≥10 days)
RegimeStartEndDaysReturn