IPO Compass
The GMP Engine
Everyone quotes grey-market premiums. Nobody grades them.
Every IPO where we hold both the GMP at listing time and the actual listing price — all 270 of them, no cherry-picking.
Direction hit rate
79.6%
positive GMP → positive listing
Median abs. error
6.67pp
GMP-implied vs actual gain
Median bias
+2.15pp
GMP systematically runs hot
Overpromised
37.0%
of IPOs, by more than 5pp
Implied vs. delivered
+0% +66% +132% 0–5% n=71 5–15% n=68 15–30% n=42 30–60% n=60 60–100% n=16 100–∞% n=8 GMP implied (median) Actually listed (median)
Violet: what the grey market promised (median implied gain per bucket). Green: what those IPOs actually did on listing day.
Calibration — what a GMP is actually worth
GMP said IPOs Median GMP Median actual listing Middle 50% of outcomes 0–5% 71 +1.6% +0.0% middle half of outcomes: -4.8% to +4.0% · median +0.0% -5 to +4% 5–15% 68 +9.8% +6.9% middle half of outcomes: +1.8% to +11.8% · median +6.9% +2 to +12% 15–30% 42 +20.8% +17.6% middle half of outcomes: +11.1% to +27.2% · median +17.6% +11 to +27% 30–60% 60 +37.4% +36.3% middle half of outcomes: +27.6% to +48.4% · median +36.3% +28 to +48% 60–100% 16 +75.9% +82.4% middle half of outcomes: +64.6% to +95.7% · median +82.4% +65 to +96% 100–∞% 8 +107.0% +118.2% middle half of outcomes: +98.2% to +125.9% · median +118.2% +98 to +126%
Read it like this: when GMP implies a 15–30% pop, the median IPO actually listed +17.6% — but a quarter did worse than +11.1%. Signal, not gospel.
Biggest misses on record
IPO GMP implied Actually listed Miss Vibhor Steel Tubes +86.1% +181.5% -95.4pp Saraswati Saree +28.1% -41.2% +69.4pp Mukka Proteins +125.0% +57.1% +67.9pp Unicommerce eSolutions +60.2% +117.6% -57.4pp SRM Contractors +59.5% +2.4% +57.1pp Tata Technologies +86.0% +140.0% -54.0pp Central Mine Planning +1.6% -50.0% +51.6pp Inox India +83.3% +41.5% +41.8pp