The dot is today. The trail is where the market has been. Right of center means growth momentum is above its one-year norm; above center means inflation pressure is above its norm. The four corners are the four macro weathers:
Growth (x-axis): the 20-day moving average of an equities-versus-bonds ratio, expressed as a z-score against its own trailing year. For the US that ratio is SPY/TLT; for India it is Nifty 50 / long-dated gilt ETF. When investors pay up for equities relative to duration, they are pricing growth.
Inflation (y-axis): the same construction on a commodities-versus-bonds ratio — DBC/VTIP for the US. India has no liquid inflation-linked bond ETF, so the Indian inflation axis uses Brent crude priced in rupees against nominal gilts — the imported-inflation channel that actually drives Indian CPI scares.
Everything on this page is derived from daily closing prices — the same auditable source as the rest of Regime Compass. It describes the environment; it is not investment advice and never says buy or sell. For the volatility-regime view of the same markets, see the HMM board; for how the two views differ, see the methodology.