| Market | Price | 1D % | Current Regime | Regime Z-Score | Move Percentile | 20D Vol %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
For each market we take daily log returns over its full history and collect the returns of every past day the HMM classified in the same regime the market is in today (filtered, causal states — no hindsight). With μ_s and σ_s the mean and standard deviation of those same-regime returns:
z = (r_today − μ_s) / σ_s
Today's return is excluded from its own baseline. If the current regime has fewer than 100 observed days, we fall back to the full-history distribution and mark the row with †. Move percentile is where today's return ranks inside that same-regime distribution. 20D vol %ile is the market's 20-day realized volatility (annualized) ranked against its own trailing five years. Regime states are decoded causally each day, using model parameters from the latest weekly fit.
Educational, not investment advice — see the Disclaimer.