Daily Brief

What kind of market is it today?

A plain-language snapshot of every market Regime Compass tracks — regenerated after each daily model run. Data as of 2026-07-24.

The bottom line

Global risk gauge 53/100 (mixed). S&P 500 risk-on · Nasdaq 100 risk-on · Bitcoin mixed · Ethereum mixed · Gold bear · Silver bear · Euro Stoxx 50 bull · Nifty 50 mixed · Nikkei 225 mixed · KOSPI Composite mixed · Shanghai Composite risk-off · Hang Seng risk-off · TAIEX mixed · Crude Oil (WTI) mixed · Copper risk-on · US 10Y Treasuries risk-off · US Dollar Index bull · FTSE 100 bull · Bovespa risk-on · Tadawul All Share mixed.

Where the three models agree, the regime is named outright; where they disagree, the market is called mixed and the blended risk gauge (0 = full risk-off, 100 = full risk-on) tells you which way it leans. Full interactive detail: risk gauges, HMM probabilities, moving-average regimes.

Regime by market

Market	SMA 200	EMA 200	HMM	Risk gauge	Stance
S&P 500	bull	bull	neutral	83/100	risk-on
Nasdaq 100	bull	bull	neutral	83/100	risk-on
Bitcoin	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed
Ethereum	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed
Gold	bear	bear	bear	0/100	risk-off
Silver	bear	bear	bear	1/100	risk-off
Euro Stoxx 50	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
Nifty 50	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed
Nikkei 225	bull	bull	bear	67/100	mixed
KOSPI Composite	bull	bull	bear	67/100	mixed
Shanghai Composite	bear	bear	neutral	16/100	risk-off
Hang Seng	bear	bear	neutral	17/100	risk-off
TAIEX	bull	bull	bear	67/100	mixed
Crude Oil (WTI)	bull	bull	bear	67/100	mixed
Copper	bull	bull	neutral	83/100	risk-on
US 10Y Treasuries	bear	bear	neutral	17/100	risk-off
US Dollar Index	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
FTSE 100	bull	bull	bull	99/100	risk-on
Bovespa	bull	bull	neutral	83/100	risk-on
Tadawul All Share	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed

Smart money (India)

Institutional smart money on the NSE is net accumulating +₹4,571 cr over the trailing month (DII-led, heaviest in Other / Diversified). Gross buying ₹5,787 cr vs exits ₹1,216 cr.

BIOCON: +₹2,472 cr net accumulation
LODHA: +₹1,514 cr net accumulation
KALYANKJIL: +₹386 cr net accumulation

From NSE bulk & block deals, cleaned and netted daily — full dashboard.

Valuation check

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE: 30.81 — 94.8th percentile of all readings since 1881
Bitcoin MVRV ratio: 1.22
Ethereum MVRV ratio: 0.94
S&P 500 trailing PE: 27.15 (via SPY)
Nasdaq 100 trailing PE: 31.85 (via QQQ)
Nifty 50 trailing PE: 22.05 (via INDA)
Nikkei 225 trailing PE: 18.65 (via EWJ)
KOSPI Composite trailing PE: 16.97 (via EWY)
Shanghai Composite trailing PE: 9.46 (via FXI)

Percentiles rank today against each metric's own full history — methodology and charts.

About this brief. Generated automatically from the same models that power the dashboards: a 3-state Gaussian HMM, 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA per market, NSE institutional deal flows, and public valuation datasets. See the methodology. Not investment advice — see disclaimer.