Daily Brief

What kind of market is it today?

A plain-language snapshot of every market Regime Compass tracks — regenerated after each daily model run. Data as of 2026-09-10.

The bottom line

Global risk gauge 68/100 (mixed). S&P 500 bull · Nasdaq 100 bull · Bitcoin bull · Ethereum bull · Gold mixed · Silver mixed · Euro Stoxx 50 bull · Nifty 50 mixed · Nikkei 225 risk-on · KOSPI Composite mixed · Shanghai Composite mixed · Hang Seng mixed · TAIEX risk-on · Crude Oil (WTI) mixed · Copper risk-on · US 10Y Treasuries risk-off · US Dollar Index mixed · FTSE 100 bull · Bovespa risk-on · Tadawul All Share mixed.

Where the three models agree, the regime is named outright; where they disagree, the market is called mixed and the blended risk gauge (0 = full risk-off, 100 = full risk-on) tells you which way it leans. Full interactive detail: risk gauges, HMM probabilities, moving-average regimes.

Regime by market

Market	SMA 200	EMA 200	HMM	Risk gauge	Stance
S&P 500	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
Nasdaq 100	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
Bitcoin	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
Ethereum	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
Gold	bear	bull	bear	33/100	mixed
Silver	bear	bull	neutral	50/100	mixed
Euro Stoxx 50	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
Nifty 50	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed
Nikkei 225	bull	bull	neutral	83/100	risk-on
KOSPI Composite	bull	bull	bear	67/100	mixed
Shanghai Composite	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed
Hang Seng	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed
TAIEX	bull	bull	neutral	83/100	risk-on
Crude Oil (WTI)	bull	bull	bear	67/100	mixed
Copper	bull	bull	neutral	88/100	risk-on
US 10Y Treasuries	bear	bear	neutral	17/100	risk-off
US Dollar Index	bear	bear	bull	33/100	mixed
FTSE 100	bull	bull	bull	100/100	risk-on
Bovespa	bull	bull	neutral	83/100	risk-on
Tadawul All Share	bull	bear	bull	67/100	mixed

Smart money (India)

Institutional smart money on the NSE is net accumulating +₹55 cr over the trailing month (DII-led, heaviest in Other / Diversified). Gross buying ₹25.0k cr vs exits ₹24.9k cr.

LENSKART: +₹2,974 cr net accumulation
ASTERDM: +₹2,606 cr net accumulation
KFINTECH: +₹2,578 cr net accumulation

From NSE bulk & block deals, cleaned and netted daily — full dashboard.

Valuation check

S&P 500 Shiller CAPE: 40.58 — 98.9th percentile of all readings since 1881
Bitcoin MVRV ratio: 1.47
Ethereum MVRV ratio: 1.1
S&P 500 trailing PE: 26.67 (via SPY)
Nasdaq 100 trailing PE: 32.72 (via QQQ)
Nifty 50 trailing PE: 23.25 (via INDA)
Nikkei 225 trailing PE: 19.14 (via EWJ)
KOSPI Composite trailing PE: 18.25 (via EWY)
Shanghai Composite trailing PE: 9.24 (via FXI)

Percentiles rank today against each metric's own full history — methodology and charts.

About this brief. Generated automatically from the same models that power the dashboards: a 3-state Gaussian HMM, 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA per market, NSE institutional deal flows, and public valuation datasets. See the methodology. Not investment advice — see disclaimer.