How to use this overview. The two models reach the same conclusion via different paths.
Moving averages are a simple, transparent trend filter — used for decades by trend-followers.
HMMs are a probabilistic regime classifier that combines returns, volatility, currency stress, and (where available) implied volatility. When both models agree on the regime, that's a stronger signal. When they disagree, dig into
HMM detail or
MA detail to understand why.
Not investment advice. See the
Disclaimer
Terms.