Know the market
you're in.

Every decision that matters — sizing, hedging, when to press and when to step back — depends on the market's regime. Regime Compass quantifies it daily across equities, rates, currencies, commodities and crypto, then checks the verdict against four more independent streams of evidence.

Today's verdict →

Today at a glance

As of 2026-09-10: S&P 500 bull · Nasdaq 100 bull · Bitcoin bull · Ethereum bull · Gold mixed · Silver mixed · Euro Stoxx 50 bull · Nifty 50 mixed · Nikkei 225 risk-on · KOSPI Composite mixed · Shanghai Composite mixed · Hang Seng mixed · TAIEX risk-on · Crude Oil (WTI) mixed · Copper risk-on · US 10Y Treasuries risk-off · US Dollar Index mixed · FTSE 100 bull · Bovespa risk-on · Tadawul All Share mixed · global risk gauge 68/100 (mixed).

Today's verdict all 20 markets · updated daily

How much of the board is risk-on right now — rates and the dollar are tracked but sit outside this count (a bond or dollar bull regime is risk-off for everything else). Click any market to see why.

–Bull

–Neutral

–Bear

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90 sessions agoRegime mix over timetoday

Read the full daily brief →

One verdict, five independent lenses

Any single indicator can lie. The verdict above only matters because four unrelated streams of evidence keep checking it.

→ ◉ The Models Three independent statistical models classify every market bull, neutral or bear — and say how confident they are. Risk ScoreHMMTrend modelsMovers → Σ The Stress How fragile the system is underneath the prices — turbulence, credit spreads, volatility, correlations. Systemic RiskCreditVolatilityCorrelations → ◫ The Backdrop Whether the backdrop is helping or hurting risk assets — US data vs trend, yields, valuation, seasonality. US MacroYield CurveValuationSectors → ⇄ The Money Not opinions — disclosed deals. Bulk & block trades, insider filings and Congress portfolios across four markets. 🇮🇳 India🇹🇼 Taiwan🇮🇩 Indonesia🇺🇸 US → ❝ The Narrative What's being written about each market — every headline in the news feed scored positive, negative or neutral by a finance-tuned language model. Divergence between the narrative and the regime is often the story. Sentiment Tracker12 marketsFinBERT12-hourly · 07:30 & 19:30 SGT

An institutional model stack live · academic lineage

Not three trend models — a full quantitative toolkit, each with published research behind it and its own audit. All updating daily, all reading live right now.

→ Regime Models 3-state Gaussian HMM · SMA · EMA – Directional state — bull, neutral or bear — for every market, three ways. → Financial Turbulence Kritzman & Li (2010) – Mahalanobis distance of the cross-asset return vector from its own history. → Absorption Ratio Kritzman, Li, Page & Rigobon (2011) – How much of total variance a few hidden factors absorb — unity means fragile. → Market Geometry Gidea & Katz (2018) · Mantegna (1999) – Persistent homology + correlation trees — the shape of market dynamics. → Credit Stress Overlay HY / Baa spread tripwire – Where bond investors — who have no upside — are pricing trouble first. → Regime Movers regime-conditional z-score – Today's move scored against the return distribution of its own current regime. → News Sentiment FinBERT — Araci (2019) – Every headline scored positive / negative / neutral by a finance-tuned BERT; daily tone per market.

How investors use it

Ten minutes a day. No noise, no calls — just the state of the board.

1 Read the verdict The Daily Brief: every market's regime, what changed overnight, and how strong the signal is. 2 Look for disagreement Models bullish but stress rising? A market moving abnormally inside its regime? Divergence is where the story is. 3 Drill into your market Every country and asset has its own hub — regime, volatility, flows and news on one page.

Audited, not asserted

We backtested our own models the way a skeptic would — refit quarterly on data available at the time, costs included, every result published, including where the models lose. See what the signals become as model portfolios →

Global markets

Quant models

Asset classes

Years walk-forward tested

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Regime Compass reports market state. It does not make trade calls, and none of this is investment advice. Method details are in the Methodology; limits and terms in the Disclaimer and Terms.